Letter from the Editor
Also this week, Mobile Internet Trends' Contributing Editor, Andrew Mitchell offers his thoughts on the mobile Internet, consumers and the economy. Can the mobile Internet provide opportunity during these more difficult times?
Mobile Internet Trends will be back after a brief holiday break on January 8, 2009. In the meantime the entire Mobile Internet Trends team offers our best wishes for a safe and happy holiday season and for a most prosperous 2009.
About five months ago I wrote about Swedish handset maker Neonode's troubling recall of its flagship N2 touchscreen smartphone. Back then the N2 was my handset of choice, a tiny, impressive little gadget was always proved to gain attention in any setting. Even iPhone owners marvelled at the tiny touchscreen. The company said at the time of the recall that reception issues plagued the device. The N2 was functioning fine for me--no dropped calls or poor signal strength. However, that all changed about a week later when the Windows CE operating system that Neonode built the handset on crashed and a "blue screen of death" appeared everytime I received a text message or attempted to answer a call.
So, like many people this past summer, I got an iPhone 3G.
I still have my Neonode in a drawer somewhere should I ever need to show a group of gadgetheads a legacy touchscreen smartphone that they've probably never handled. I'll certainly relate the story its makers told me: The N2's UI served as the inspiration for iPhone's swipe-to-lock gesture. Unfortunately, I doubt there's a chance Neonode will help me revive my "Zoolander" phone to prove its UI's similarity.
The company's Swedish subsidiary, Neonode AB, just announced that it was bankrupt this week and while the company plans to stay afloat as a technology licensing company, chances are it won't be servicing handsets.
Of course, Neonode's demise is no surprise to most industry pundits--breaking into the handset business is no easy task, especially for a wholly unknown start-up. While Neonode has waved the white flag, there is more concern over the fate of Motorola, which is currently being run by two co-CEOs and no longer has plans to spin off its handset unit.
Neonode may end up as a footnote to the development of the iPhone, at best, but Motorola's demise is one that could reverberate throughout the entire industry.
The debate over M2Z's plan to open up a segment of the AWS-3 band to offer free Internet services across the U.S. has festered all year, but the FCC is now planning on voting on the issue come December 18th. FierceBroadbandWireless published a detailed write-up of feisty exchanges between two of the key players in the debate: Kathleen Ham, T-Mobile's vice president of regulatory affairs and John Muleta, CEO and co-founder of M2Z. Both used to work for the FCC's Wireless Telecommunications Bureau. Both seem to be in total disagreement with each other, however.
T-Mobile has proposed that the 20 MHz AWS-3 band should be paired with the 10 MHz J block to create a single asymmetric license that the operator estimates would support downstream rates of 35 Mbps per sector and upstream rates of 4 Mbps per sector. M2Z wants the FCC to auction off that band of AWS-3 spectrum to a bidder willing to offer free wireless Internet services. For a taste of how heated the debate has become, here's a choice quote from Muleta:
"We believe in the rule of law. The commissioners have to do their job at all times ... If the FCC wants to deny American people access to affordable communications because of a German carrier's desire to continue monopoly then so be it," Muleta said. (Read the whole article here).
Muleta has not been shy about pulling the patriotism card in the past--at the 4G Executive Summit in Chicago this past year, Muleta told one reporter explained his frustration with T-Mobile over the AWS-3 debate by noting "a company owned by Deutsche Telekom, which is one of the largest monopolies ... [is] squat[ting] on the U.S. people's spectrum."
What soon-to-be-departing FCC Chairman Kevin Martin would like to happen at the December 18th meeting is the launch of a National Wireless Broadband Plan that would help bridge the digital divide by providing nationwide broadband access through a wireless network that runs on the AWS-3 spectrum band. The service would also have a filter for inappropriate adult content, which is a stipulation that many advocacy groups find to be the most offensive. For a discussion on the legal precedents surrounding this filter, check out this article from Ars Technica.
So, what do you think will happen December 18? Will Muleta and M2Z prevail? Will Martin's adult content-free, free-to-use national wireless broadband service get the green light? Or will T-Mobile's argument regarding interference win the day?
While it's not true for all mobile applications, many services enabled by the mobile Internet are meant to be as close to the traditional Internet experience as possible. That's where efficient and elegant device design and browser-power come in.
Sure, Microsoft announced plans last week for a new, mobile version of IE6, but it also only made an emulator of the forthcoming mobile browser available because the browser requires a more powerful handset--Redmond says IE6 needs new devices.
On the same note, Research In Motion is also ramping up its mobile Internet strategy with souped up devices like the Bold. Key partnerships like online social networking powerhouses like MySpace are only half the battle--the other challenge is keeping customers in your wheelhouse even after they discover the iPhone or Android's G1.
As competition ramps up and clear choices between the top Internet-enabled devices become more difficult to sort out, the industry will increasingly look to side-by-side reviews of devices like those CNET and Gizmodo carried out this past week. As our weekly columnist and Rethink Research Director Caroline Gabriel points out in this week's Special Report: CNET compared a half dozen handsets as they ran a full length movie, TV episode and audio track. The iPhone 3G, BlackBerry Bold, Samsung Instinct, LG Dare and HTC/T-Mobile G1 were all equipped with a 4Gb MicroSD except the 8Gb iPhone and all were running on 3G networks. According to the CNET review, the Bold blew away the competition on download speeds, performing at 13.9Mbps for the movie and 9.59Mbps for audio. The G1 came in second, with ratings of 5.99Mbps and 5.08Mbps; iPhone was third with 5Mbps and 2.79Mbps; the Dare performed at 1.49Mbps and 1.31Mbps; and the Instinct scored 0.79Mbps and 0.74Mbps. Read more here.
At the same time Gizmodo carried out a similar review with a very similar lineup of handsets--but the results were vastly different. Apple's iPhone, Google's Andorid G1 phone and the Blackberry Bold finished in the top three spots--but in that order. Read more here.
Finally, Google has given voice-enabled search another go on the mobile platform. Google's voice search launched on Apple's iPhone, though, not G1. Read this week's Mobile Internet Watch to find out why.
Microsoft's mobile efforts are dominating headlines this week as Redmond attacks the mobile internet from multiple fronts: browser, operating system and search.
First up, Redmond confirmed that a reworked version of Internet Explorer 6 will soon be coming to mobile phones. While the company promised to upgrade the mobile browser some time ago, it just released an emulator of IE6 for mobiles yesterday. While early reviews give the updated browser kudos on improved usability, the early-stage emulator version of the browser is not without hiccups. Check out this post from Arstechnica for more.
While Windows Mobile remains Microsoft's most visible contribution to the mobile internet movement, reviewers have panned most of the devices running on the OS--until now. GigaOm gives SonyEricsson's new Xperia handset a glowing review and ends with this advice: "If your company insists that you need a Windows Mobile phone, then Xperia X1 is an obvious (and perhaps the only) choice." Ha. Read on for the entire review here.
Finally, Microsoft is grabbing headlines for nearing a deal with Verizon Wireless to handle the carrier's mobile search offering. According to a Wall Street Journal report that cited unnamed sources, Verizon Wireless is close to accepting Redmond's terms because the company will pay the carrier between $550 million and $650 million over five years as part of the deal. Reportedly, the figure is twice what Google was willing to pay Verizon Wireless. Read this week's Mobile Internet Watch for more on this development.
Independent analyst Andy Seybold penned a column today over at FierceWireless entitled, "White Spaces Decision Will Haunt FCC" and a healthy discussion has erupted in the comments below. Seybold argues that the FCC's decision to allow devices to make use of the unlicensed white spaces spectrum will result in "thousands of people [finding] their ability to watch TV... compromised and their ability to hear what is happening at concerts... interrupted by interference caused by these new white space 'smart' devices."
One commenter writes in: "As a sound mixer who regularly relies on wireless microphones to bring all of you your television programming... Television Production, Sports, Conventions, Theaters, Stage, Churches... rely on hundreds of thousands of existing RF microphones... I think we are in for lots of bad sound and interferrence. Momentary splats, buzzes... constantly intruding into your life."
Certainly an interesting read. Did the FCC rush to make a decision on this one or will white spaces prove to be fertile ground for future wireless start-ups and subsequent competition?
White white spaces remain controversial, it's not too surprising that the economy had an impact on T-Mobile USA's bottom line this past quarter (with a little help from AT&T Mobility, which reportedly snagged a few converts.) T-Mobile's post-paid net additions were only 293,000 for the quarter an all-time low for the carrier.
Finally, check out this week's Mobile Internet Watch by Rethink Research's Caroline Gabriel to find out how LG is teaming up with Microsoft to help Windows Mobile take on Symbian.
Earlier this year Motorola announced plans to spinoff its handset business by Q3 2009, but the company announced today that it would need more time. The news came served alongside a dismal year-end forecast, plans to lay-off some 3,000 workers and a definitive decision to strip the number of operating systems it supports down to three: Android, Windows Mobile and its own in-house Java-Linux platform. The lay-off, of course, will reportedly come mostly from the handset division. Motorola reported a net loss of $397 million compared to a $40 million profit in the year-ago period. Sales dipped 15 percent to $7.48 billion from $8.81 billion in Q3 2007.
GigaOm compared restoring Motorola's handset business to climbing Mount Everest without a tank of oxygen. Ouch.
While Co-CEO of Motorola and CEO of Mobile Devices Dr. Sanjay Jha's division is trying to come up for air, the rest of the company--enterprise, government, video--is doing well. Can Motorola afford to wait past Q3 of next year to dump handsets? What do you think?
Our weekly columnist, Caroline Gabriel of Rethink Research argues that Orascom is Nokia's most important Ovi customer. Read on to find out why.
Greetings from the groundfloor of the Boston Convention and Exhibition Center where all the major players in the mobile internet ecosystem have gathered this past week at Mobile Internet World to discuss, debate and decide the present state and future visions of the Internet as enabled by the Anywhere Network.
Both RCR News and Mobile Marketer provided a large swatch of coverage of the goings on here at MIW and if you just want the highlights, check out our twitter feed over at www.twitter.com/mobileinternet. Here are a few other options for a review of Mobile Internet World--the perfect guide for those that missed out and a nice review for attendees.
Nokia's Nick Lim discussed the companies use of the Netbiscuits platform and best practices for mobile advertising on WAP sites. Lim suggested that in many cases the Mobile Web outperforms the traditional Internet.
Meanwhile, Sprint's Vice President of Corporate Strategy Russ McGuire warned other carriers that the time was now to develop new business models because the old way is not going to work with the mobile internet. Read coverage of McGuire's keynote over at Mobile Marketer.
Vodafone Group's Erik de Kroon noted during his keynote that 90 percent of Vodafone's "browsing consumers" (meaning those with the ability to access the mobile internet) still use the carrier's portal Vodafone Live, so whether it's really time to rethink business models is still up for debate. After all, Vodafone plays in a lot of emerging markets. Check out more on Kroon's talk here.
Trying to get the edge on other bidder's in eBay's auctions? According to eBay's Mobile Director Francesco Rovetta: It's time you start accessing the auction site's mobile portal. Bidders who use mobile win more auctions, Rovetta said.
The future of Mobile Internet Devices are all touch-screen and include four-way video calling, according to Intel's vision of the mobile internet. During a keynote at Mobile Internet World, Intel's Anand Chandrasekher showed off a number of MID mock-ups with corresponding videos that explained their future use cases. Whether it's controlling your lights, interacting with your television or helping you find your car in a parking lot--the future of mobile devices looks helpful.
Verizon Wireless' Vice President of Open Development, Anthony Lewis, was the real showstopper, however, at Mobile Internet World this past week. Lewis gave a fiery keynote presentation that laid out the carrier's plans for an open mobile network that is firmly rooted in a device-centric mentality. Verizon Wireless does not plan to open its existing line of mobile phones to developers, but it has processes in place to move future mobile internet devices onto the network without controlling the types of applications they may support or enable. Lewis pointed to M2M services as the first big opportunity for open mobile networks, especially while Verizon Wireless works to roll out its 700 MHz network in the next two years. Lewis even suggested that wireless penetration could hit 400 percent in the coming years--read on to find out how and why.
Thanks to all Mobile Internet World attendees, speakers and sponsors. See you in 2009!
Despite the Dow's recent see-saw, Admob reported a threefold increase in the number of mobile advertisement requests it received during the past year. Admob's requests skyrocketed from 1.6 billion in September 2007 to 5.1 billion in September 2008. Looks like brands are willing to spend on mobile advertising, even in times like these.
While Admob took a look back at past successes, AT&T is eyeing the future of its device portfolio. The carrier made moves to beef up it efforts to add wireless capabilities to non-communications consumer electronics devices. AT&T positioned Glenn Lurie, the exec who hashed out the exclusive iPhone deal with Apple, as the new lead of a division tasked with enabling wireless capabilities in CE devices. Amazon's Kindle device, which runs on Sprint's network, is the usual suspect when referencing embedded devices as a market opp for carriers--but AT&T is looking at everything from "personal computers and laptops, GPS systems and digital cameras," according to a statement from Lurie. That's a rather disappointing list--aren't mobile phones already a compilation of those devices?
In other news--reviews of T-Mobile USA's Google Android phone, the G1, are in. Be sure to check out the Top News section below for the skinny.
ALSO: Just a few days remain to REGISTER for Mobile Internet World next week. Here's the Top 10 Things You Don't Want to Miss, and feel free to take advantage of our FREE Expo Pass, too! We have been hard at work putting the finishing touches on our program: We recently added Russ McGuire, Vice President of Corporate Strategy at Sprint as a keynote speaker on Wednesday morning (read his blog here) and have also added a fireside chat next Thursday afternoon with Rich Miner, EVP of Mobile Platforms (Android) at Google.
Apple has closed the gap on its 2008 goal of selling 10 million iPhones, according to some reports, a full two to three months ahead of schedule--despite our current economic climate. I like to think recipients of that $600 stimulus check in the Spring drove to the nearest AT&T or Apple store with newly filled gas tanks and bought an iPhone.
Despite stimulus checks and the iPhone's (subsequent?) impressive sales, the economic downturn has taken a nosedive in recent months. So given the increasing interest in mobile internet devices even in the midst of economic downturn, how will the mobile internet economy, the Anywhere Economy, fare moving forward?
As Yankee Group reported yesterday, "failing credit, jeopardized revenue and spending reductions are the imminent threats of today's economic downturn that stand to impair the Anywhere revolution, a global transformation toward ubiquitous connectivity." YG notes that operators and vendors will have to adapt to the economic climate like every other industry, but the trend "toward Anywhere is irreversible, and that the financial crisis will only shape rather than stop the trend." Here's what Yankee Group thinks we can expect:
- Operators will continue their Anywhere Network expansion plans. Any changes in network investment will be small. With the emergence of Anywhere being inevitable, companies may curtail spending in the short term but continue to adhere to long-term network buildout strategies.
- Discretionary spending will fall. Every player in the Anywhere Economy will be closely watching their expenditures. This won't affect core revenue, as everyone needs the internet, but it will cap growth for the next 6 months to a year due to fewer upgrades and less new business.
- Big companies will gain the upper hand. Size matters during a financial crisis. Those with greater assets and stability are more likely to do well and have the funds to invest in potential game-changing ideas.
- Operators will squeeze network equipment vendors. Purchases slow and discounts are sought in times of economic trouble. Declines in discretionary revenue and tougher negotiating by large businesses will adversely impact many network equipment vendors.
So don't panic about the mobile internet economy, but now is the time to get ahead of the changes to come. And if you're still wondering how the financial crisis will shape the Anywhere trend, I invite you to come discuss the trend with the leaders of the mobile internet industry as they descend on Boston at Mobile Internet World October 21-23. We have assembled a stellar line-up of keynotes and panel speakers, who are leading and shaping the mobile internet's direction each and everyday. Click here for registration information and see you at the show!
Read Today's Press Release: Mobile Internet World 2008 Anticipates Thousands of Attendees for Upcoming Boston Event