Apple, Adobe further apart than ever on iPhone Flash
Opinions on the multimedia capabilities of the iPhone vary widely. On one side, some users desperately lament the absence of support for Adobe Flash. On the other, there is the view that Apple's Steve Jobs is right, and that Flash is not up to the job of supporting such a sophisticated handset, and therefore subscribers get a better all-round experience from the iPhone, even if some content is off-limits. Now it seems Apple is developing its own platform to bypass Flash, using a technology called SproutCore, while Adobe is working on Flash emulation for the new iPhone.
Whichever line you take, this is becoming an epic stand-off that is as much to do with industry politics as user functionality - both Apple and Adobe are in the front row of vendors that aim to drive the agenda for mobile internet standards, along with Microsoft, Nokia and Yahoo. Adobe, which has recently upgraded Flash Lite and announced a plan for a unified platform for developers that bridges the PC and phone, has also founded the Open Screen Initiative to increase backing for Flash to become a standard on all advanced handsets.
It has powerful allies, not least Nokia, and Sony Ericsson, which recently set up Project Capuchin to work on techniques to bring together Java and Flash on mobile platforms. But Microsoft remains ambivalent - supporting Flash reluctantly on its mobile systems but also pushing the rival claims of its Silverlight system. And of course, Apple remains stubbornly aloof.
This proliferation of rich media and video streaming capabilities is certainly driving innovation and creating new choices for end users at a rapid rate. But it is also creating confusion among developers, who would rather build to a single platform and deliver to all smartphones, and risks denying some users important functions.
Adobe, of course, is desperate to come to a truce with Apple. This week, CEO Shantanu Narayen was asked whether Flash would make an appearance in the imminent 3G iPhone, though Apple has already said it would not, at least in the first generation. Narayen said on an analyst call: "With respect to the iPhone, we are working on it. We have a version that's working on the emulation. This is still on the computer and you know, we have to continue to move it from a test environment onto the device and continue to make it work. So we are pleased with the internal progress that we've made to date."
In other words, Adobe wants Flash to be included in the iPhone, but is not full of hope, and in the meantime will just have to offer these capabilities via emulation, a far more clumsy option for developers and users. Adobe has the difficult task of making Flash iPhone-friendly enough to lure Apple, without compromising its promise of being a single product, consistent across all handsets, and eventually the PC too. And it faces the even more difficult task of coming to a political agreement with Apple that will enable both companies to pursue a pole position in the mobile internet market, without treading on one another's powerful but sensitive toes.
In the mean time, Apple itself is working with SproutCore, an open source Javascript framework that should be powering the new suite of MobileMe applications for the new iPhone. This suggests that it is trying to build its own rich internet applications system, bypassing Adobe, based on its Safari browser, SproutCore multimedia, QuickTIme and H.264. Apple says it does not want to be locked into one standard for rich media and that Flash does not fulfil all the requirements of the iPhone's more demanding users.
Meanwhile, semiconductor analysts Forward Concepts are refusing to be drawn into the trend to be over-impressed by the iPhone. The company refuses even to categorize the Apple product as a mobile internet device, claiming these should have screens of four to six inches and with VGA resolution, plus TV-out and optional mobile TV capabilities. Despite the convergence of devices from the PC and smartphone pedigrees in the mobile internet world, the new report foresees two separate categories - Intel-led ultra-mobile PCs and smartphone-derived mobile internet devices (MIDs) - persisting for some years.
The market for integrated circuits for inclusion in MIDs is set to grow from $29 million in 2008 to $2.6 billion in 2012, with Texas Instruments and Qualcomm as leading suppliers of silicon, according to Forward Concepts. Over the same period, the number of global MID shipments is set to grow from 305,000 in 2008 to 40 million in 2012. That market includes application processors, digital basebands, RF transceivers and power amplifiers, graphics and other coprocessors, imagers, touchscreen controllers, power management ICs and peripheral chips such as Wi-Fi, WiMAX, GPS, Bluetooth and mobile TV.
Intel has more chance of success in the ultramobile PC, because x86 compatibility is important, and battery life expectations are similar to those of notebook computers. Texas Instruments, with its OMAP application processor family and the largest market share in standalone smartphone applications processor, is one of the best positioned non-x86 semiconductor vendors along with Qualcomm, with its SnapDragon application processor and strong 3G wireless position.
Other MID success stories are likely to be Nvidia with its graphics capabilities, Samsung with its applications processor experience and stacked memory capability, and those that innovate in the touchscreen and other aspects of the new user interface.
"We don't envision MIDs as ever employing Microsoft's Vista operating system; however, we believe that Microsoft has a MID play with future versions of Windows Mobile. Of course, Linux will be popular in MIDs for its lower processing overhead and tighter OEM control," said Will Strauss, president of Forward Concepts.
