Is Nokia ambivalent about Linux or biding its time to seize the market?
Nokia has been demonstrating a certain schizophrenia over mobile Linux, which following Motorola's decision to focus almost exclusively on the Symbian OS on handsets, is casting some doubts over the readiness of Linux for the cellphone market. CFO Rick Simonson played up the importance of Nokia's Linux-based internet tablets at an investor conference recently, and hinted at broader use of the OS in handsets, but the company's official spokespeople then hastened to limit the impact of the remarks, saying they had been specific to the tablets--despite a well reported comment by Simonson that Nokia was "well on the way" to having Linux on a mainstream handset.
The spin doctors' caution is understandable since Nokia will not want to do anything to damage Symbian's prominence in key smartphone markets like western Europe. Also, any doubts over the readiness of Linux for the mobile big time will not be unwelcome to Nokia--by association, such question marks dent confidence in the most high profile mobile open source project, Android, led by its enemy Google; and while we believe the mighty Finn will inevitably push hard into Linux in the coming year or two, it will certainly be pleased with any prolongation of Symbian's position in the forefront of smartphones. Not only will this protect an OS that is more profitable for Nokia than Linux, on which all its key software runs, and over which it has significant control; but it will enable Nokia to go full throttle in Linux at a time when it has the products (notably a Linux version of Series 60) and partnerships in place to take the helm, rather than just joining an initiative led by others.
In fact, many of Nokia's recent moves suggest that it is positioning itself to take a major stand on Linux, something that its push into web services makes almost inevitable. It has certainly become more focused on open source, even in the Symbian world, putting aspects of its key software platform, Series 60, into the open process and acquiring software developer Trolltech.
In the meantime, most of its commercial Linux work is happening on the internet tablets, which have proved important devices for Nokia, both because of healthy uptake and because they are, unusually for the Finn, products that appeal particularly in the difficult US market. The promise of a WiMAX/Wi-Fi version of the large-screen, non-cellular product was important in clinching the position of third supplier to Sprint Nextel for WiMAX infrastructure, and the 802.16 variant of the N810 tablet was duly launched at the recent CTIA conference (somewhat more promptly, it seems, than the actual infrastructure systems from Nokia Siemens).
The tablets represent Nokia's candidate for the role of the defining device in the evolution of the mobile internet--a handheld product that has no cellular radio, yet is rooted firmly in the value chain and design traditions of the cellphone market, in contrast to the Intel submission, the MID, which is recognizably the son of the PC.
As such, the Nokia tablets bear a far greater burden than just sales targets and carrier adoption--they are the flagship of the Finnish company's bid to continue to set the agenda in mobile devices even as these move to being full internet machines; and to broaden its market base and channels beyond carriers and into enterprise and direct-to-consumer areas. They are also, usefully, a range out of the norms of the other Nokia handsets, where the company can test Linux-oriented software and processes without impacting the Symbian-based business. "We will expand that range, and we believe that the role of Linux will grow," Simonson said, referring to the tablets as "terribly important".
According to research firm Canalys, in the smartphone and wireless handheld segment, Symbian OS was installed on 67 percent of devices at the end of 2007, Windows Mobile on 13 percent, RIM BlackBerry on 10 percent, while Mobile Linux had single-digit share, with shipments that had not increased on 2006. So while the opportunity for Linux is there, being driven by the mobile internet giants and particularly those coming from the PC environment, it is certainly far from mature as an OS for a highly mobile, highly complex smartphone. Most of its growth has actually come on lower end markets and in China, where it is very popular, and where even Motorola, which turned its back on multiple smartphone OSs last month in order to streamline its operations, will retain a range.
Along with functionality, the major problem for Linux is fragmentation because of its many variants: Ubuntu, for example, currently claims the prize for being the leader. This is a problem that several initiatives are seeking to address, notably the Open Handset Alliance, which backs Google Android; the LiMo Foundation; and several Intel projects. However, each has its political agenda, and a failure to work together could just lead to stand-offs and further fragmentation, a major deterrent to developers and operators.
